Showing posts with label natural gas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label natural gas. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Saving Grace* - Energy Efficiency in New Hampshire – Part 2

In my last post, I looked at the big picture of energy supply and consumption in New Hampshire, as well as some gross measures of energy efficiency (EE), viz., energy intensity and energy use per capita. The data indicated that we are making progress, but that we have a long, long way to go before we can consider ourselves energy efficient. In this post, I take a look at NH’s EE ranking and some important policy developments that will help promote EE in the state.  

The American Council on an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) produces an annual scorecard that ranks the states on their EE initiatives and progress. The map below shows the state rankings in the most recent scorecard report. The ranking is done by grading each state’s utility EE programs, transportation initiatives, building energy codes, state government initiatives, and combined heat and power programs. NH’s ranking is in the midrange at # 21: we are surrounded by New England states with much better rankings, including Massachusetts, which, along with California, hold the number 1 spot.  




A closer look at the NH’s scorecard is enlightening. The figure below shows specific data regarding various scorecard components compared with those of NH’s immediate neighbors.




As you can see, NH’s scores were run-of-the-mill in the areas of utility programs, building codes, and state initiatives, and poor in transportation, appliance, and combined heat and power initiatives. The scorecard report does note that the state took a big step forward by approving new energy-savings targets for 2018 to 2020, but also remarked that NH could improve considerably in the transportation and combined heat and power sectors. Our neighbors are clearly doing more in almost all categories.

When it comes to EE, it is my view that there are three main drivers, as indicated below.



The first, and most important, are government-mandated EE programs. These include building codes, appliance efficiency standards, and fuel-economy standards for motor vehicles. These are often Federal standards, but sometimes state-specific requirements may exceed or fill in for a lack of Federal standards. Producers of the goods and services affected by such mandates are required by law to ensure that their products meet these requirements; we, as consumers, indirectly participate in EE by purchasing these goods.

The other type of EE initiatives are those in which we voluntarily participate by making non-mandated but important EE decisions; for example, the replacement of an incandescent or CFL lightbulb with a more expensive but more energy-efficient LED bulb.

The third driver for EE is energy prices. We are very basic creatures and respond to financial incentives, so if energy prices are high, be it electricity, natural gas, or gasoline, we generally take active measures to reduce our energy expenditure by driving less, buying more fuel-efficient vehicles, or putting on a sweater and turning down the thermostat. One might argue that high energy prices are just a driver of our voluntary actions; however, I see them as different because there is often an altruistic/it’s good for the planet/right-thing-to-do component to voluntary action. And if you can save boatloads of money by doing the right thing for the planet, more power to you. (Or perhaps that should be less power to you?)

For the remainder of this post, I review utility-run EE programs in NH. These are a combination of mandated and voluntary actions. The utilities are mandated to offer them, but we, as home or business owners, voluntarily participate in them, but, in doing so, we also have to open our wallets to pay for our part of these investments.

Since 2002, NH has had a formal utility-run program to promote EE investments in NH, known as the Core Energy Efficiency Program. This is a New Hampshire Public Utility Commission (NHPUC)-mandated program with required participation by the electrical and natural gas utilities. The utilities collaborate in their efforts to provide savings, information, incentives, and assistance in the implementation of EE investments to their ratepayers, which include municipalities, homeowners, and industrial and commercial operations. Information about the program is reported on the NHSaves website, which is a good place to start looking for information about energy savings and EE if you are a NH ratepayer. The program is directed at both the electrical and natural gas utilities and requires savings in both.

The NHSaves program has many features and offers a lot of services to realize energy savings. Quoting directly from the 2017 New Hampshire Statewide Energy Efficiency Plan, the elements of the program include:

  • “Working with Home Energy Raters and building contractors, to incent the construction of highly efficient homes that use 15-30 percent less energy than a standard new home. 
  •  Incentivizing insulation, air-sealing and other weatherization measures performed by qualified private contractors to reduce a homeowner’s heating fuel use by more than 15 percent on average.
  • Providing insulation, air-sealing and other weatherization measures to low-income families, saving them hundreds of dollars per year on energy costs, though a collaboration with the NH Office of Energy and Planning’s Weatherization Assistance Program and New Hampshire’s six Community Action Agencies.
  • Partnering with over 100 New Hampshire appliance retailers and suppliers across the state to help customers purchase highly efficient appliances such as refrigerators, clothes washers and room air conditioners, saving 10-20 percent of the energy they would have used if they had purchased standard efficiency models.
  •  Partnering with over 100 lighting retailers and suppliers across the state to reduce the barriers for New Hampshire customers to purchase energy efficient lighting measures that can save between $30 to $80 over the lifetime of a single product.
  • Working with qualified private contractors to help businesses and non-profits identify and install more efficient lighting, controls, motors, HVAC equipment, air compressors and industrial process equipment. 
  • Focusing on municipalities to help save energy in public buildings, reducing overall costs to taxpayers and making public spaces a model for efficiency improvements.”

To date, the goals of the NH program have been modest and the annual energy savings have been small—of the order of 0.5% of NH total energy consumption. Our neighboring states have been more aggressive in their savings; for example, in 2015, RI, MA, VT, and ME had savings of 2.91%, 3.74%, 2.01%, and 1.53% of their 2015 retail sales, respectively.

Even though NH’s annual savings have been relatively small, these small savings, year on year, have accumulated over time. It has been estimated that, since the start of the Core program, customers have saved over $1.9 billion and reduced electricity consumption by 12 billion kWh and natural gas use by 24.5 million MMBtus (million BTUs). The Core program, by most measures, has been a successful one.

These accumulated savings are great, but there is a cost for the program that NH ratepayers fund. The 2016 budget was ~$24 million for the electrical EE programs and ~$7 million for the gas programs. The electrical component has been funded by part of the Systems Benefit Charge (SBC) paid by each electrical ratepayer (in 2017, the  EE portion will be 0.198 cents/kWh of the 0..354 cents/kWh SBC charge averaged across the four utilities), money from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) auctions that are distributed to the NE states, and from the ISO-NE capacity market. The natural gas savings program has been funded through the local distribution adjustment charge (LDAC) paid by natural gas users. Typically, the split in funding for the electrical program has been 70% from SBC funds, 19% from RGGI, 10% from the forward capacity market, and  1% from carryover and interest, whereas the natural gas savings program is funded completely from the LDAC charge.

It is important to appreciate that all ratepayers pay their share towards the program, but only those that elect to participate benefit directly and reap the big savings. To actively benefit from this program and reap the rewards requires you, as the ratepayer, to make an upfront EE investment. The amount that you have to pay depends on your utility, class of service, and particular type of EE investment. Even though there is a requirement for an upfront investment, the utility-run EE programs have been popular: there have been waiting lists and money to fund EE investments has run out before the end of each year.

Even if you don’t participate directly, you, along with other non-participating ratepayers, benefit indirectly because reduced energy consumption, regardless where it comes from, benefits us all. It improves the resiliency of our energy-delivery systems because less energy has to be sourced, it keeps our costs down because fewer power plants have to be built, our resources last longer, less pollution results, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, local jobs are created, and, as noted in my previous post, there is a cascade of other benefits that results from EE investments.

The Core program is well run and carefully administered, and a great deal of effort is expended in evaluating its effectiveness. It is overseen by the NHPUC, but is run by the electrical and natural gas utility companies that are required to submit a joint annual plan and budget. The joint administration and shared marketing resources through the NHSaves program ensures consistency and best practice implementation across all utilities. Each utility is required to provide quarterly and annual reports and is subject to annual financial audits and independent certification of savings.   The program is a serious endeavor and is continually reviewed. THE NHPUC has over 130 reports evaluating the effectiveness of EE programs in NH and NE. I consider this to be an important and well-run, documented, audited, and verified initiative.

As part of their administration of the EE program, the utilities carefully vet the projects that are considered and each undergoes a thorough cost-effective screening. Each program is required to have a benefit-to-cost ratio above one. The costs and benefits are over the lifetime of the project (which vary depending on the nature of the project); costs include both the utility and ratepayer contributions. The specific benefit:cost goals laid out in the 2017 plan are shown in the table  below.
  
As mentioned, the utilities report annually on their EE programs, recording what was spent and what the benefits were. I have summarized some key findings from the 2015 reports in the table and bullet points below:


  • Eversource, with the largest number of customers in NH, spent the most on EE programs.
  • There are variations from utility to utility, but the end users (homeowners, commercial, industrial and municipal) are paying, on average, 45% of the costs of EE investment; the utility pays the other 55% out of their funds allocated for EE.
  • Homeowners are paying, on average, 37% of their EE investments.
  • The lifetime benefit/cost ratio is an average of 2.2, which means that, for every $ invested in EE, NH reaps over $2 in benefits in terms of energy savings.

Overall, the cost of EE investments in NH through the Core program has been estimated to be 3.7 cents/kWh. If we had spent this money on just buying more electricity, we would have paid the retail price of about 16 cents/kWh. The natural gas savings are similar: $0.336/therm for EE vs. $0.81/therm for purchase. In short, investing in EE is a bargain.

The challenge with the Core program is that, while it has been popular, funding has been limited and a lot of deserving EE projects have not yet been implemented. To support more EE savings and meet the objectives of  NH’s 10-year Energy Strategy, the NHPUC  has recently approved a new statewide utility-run EE policy, known as the Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS). This program boosts the annual goals for energy efficiency and increases funding available for EE investments. It kicks in at the start of 2018 and requires utilities to increase their annual energy savings.  The EERS program was developed with significant stakeholder involvement, ranging from environmental lobbying groups, utilities, state representation, community action groups, and other energy-related non-profits. The program will be overseen by NHPUC with input from stakeholders and will be jointly administered by the utilities, as with the Core program.

The annual goals for the new EERS program, and how they compare with the recent Core program goals, are shown in the figure below.

It is good to see the annual savings increase: over the next four years (2017 to 2020), there will be a cumulative savings of 3.1% of electricity and 2.25% of natural gas (compared with 2014 consumption). But, again, I need to note that, compared with our neighbors, these goals are rather humble: the average annual electrical savings increases are 2.1% for Vermont, 2.9% for Massachusetts, 2.4% for Maine, and 2.6% for Rhode Island. 

The EERS plan also has the following features:
  • Instead of the two-year planning and implementation cycles used in the Core program, the EERS program will use a three-year cycle.
  • Funding for EE investments will more than double over the next few years. In 2016, the budget for EE investments was $31 million; in 2020, it proposed to be $74 million.
  • The money for these increased EE investments will come from an increase in the SBC and LDAC components of the utility bill. The average SBC and LDAC in 2017 will be 0..354 cents/kWh and 4.95 cents/therm, increasing to 0.821 cents/kWh and 6.91 cents/therm in 2020, respectively. This will result in a $2.70 monthly increase in the electrical bill for a ratepayer using 600 kWh per month. Overall, the EERS program will contribute to a 2 to 3% increase  in NH utility bills from 2017 to 2020.
  • To compensate utilities for the lower energy sales and lost revenue associated with EE, a lost revenue adjustment mechanism (LRAM) will be implemented. This is new and is built into the SBC rate increase.
  • As with the Core program, there are built-in performance incentives to encourage utilities to make these investments. Basically, the utilities will earn a bonus for achieving above-budget energy savings.
  • The EESE Board, which is a multi-stakeholder committee that works with the NHPUC to promote energy efficiency and sustainable energy in the state, will serve as a review and advisory council.
  • Evaluation, monitoring, and verification will be carried out by independent consultants.
  • The low-income assistance portion of the program will increase from 15.5% to 17% of the total EE budget for the first three years.

There are, of course, objections to the EERS program. It will increase the bills of all ratepayers across the state, but big savings only accrue to those who participate and have the funds to foot their part of the investment. However, bear in mind that if your neighbor makes a big investment in EE and significantly reduces her monthly cost, you indirectly benefit from improved energy system resiliency, lower long-term energy costs, less pollution, etc. This is similar to the benefits that an SUV driver might derive from drivers of EE vehicles: those drivers of EE vehicles extend the lifetime of oil resources, reduce pollution, and keep oil prices down.  Ultimately, it is your choice whether to pour your dollars into your gas tank or into inefficient energy use in your home, but keep in mind that you do benefit from the EE activities of others.
  
Should you find yourself agitated by the increase in utility rates associated with the EERS program, I encourage you to take direct action that undo that increase. Go through your home and find three old style incandescent ightbulbs and change them to LED bulbs (which can be purchased for $2/bulb). The annual energy savings from these bulbs (assuming you have changed to  10W LEDs,  burning for 4 hours a day and your average electricity use per month is 600 W) will save you 2.7% of your electricity bill which more than relieves that phased SBC increase.

It must also be appreciated that EE presents a problem to regulated utility companies. They are in business to sell electricity or natural gas and thereby earn a return on their investments to pass on to their investors. (And before you get all self-righteous about money-grabbing investors, look at the companies in your retirement investments: you will mostly likely find some utility companies in your portfolio, making you one of those investors. Utility company shares have proved to be extraordinarily reliable investments with steady returns.) When utilities are obligated to make investments in EE, this reduces the amount of electricity or natural gas they sell, reduces revenue and profits, and limits opportunities to make infrastructure investments on which they can earn a return. Moreover, they have to administer these EE investments, employ staff to run these programs, and incur costs. Generally, the utilities would not be in favor of these programs so they need to be incentivized to participate. This is done by compensating them for the lost sales and costs associated with the EE program, which is built into the SBC or LDAC charges. In essence, the utilities get to sell less of their energy commodity at higher prices.

This post has covered NH’s middle-ranking EE. We are way behind our New England neighbors in EE, but the saving grace* is that that NH is in the process of transitioning from the Core to the EERS program, which is an important step forward.  Required annual energy savings will increase and EE investment budgets will more than double. This will have utility-cost implications because NH ratepayers will see a 2 to 3% increase in their utility bills over the 2017–2020 period as a result of these changes. However, these are good programs that make a difference and we all benefit and, by our implementing our own simple EE actions, like changing over to LED lightbulbs, we can cancel out the effect of the rate increase. It is a far better idea to make EE investments now that reduce our exploitation of fuel resources and reduce energy infrastructure investments. This will reduce energy cost increases in the future

However, to fully benefit from these programs requires action and investment on our part. This is something that we don’t always do—even when we know it is the right thing. I will discuss this lack of action in my next post. In the meantime, do your bit for energy efficiency and turn off the lights when you leave the room.

Mike Mooiman

Franklin Pierce University
mooimanm@franklinpierce.edu



(*Saving Grace: A fabulous tune with a great driving groove by one of my favorites: Tom Petty. From the Highway Companion album released in 2006. Enjoy Saving Grace.)

Saturday, October 1, 2016

Back Home* – Electricity Prices After the Mild Winter of 2015/2016

After a year away on my sabbatical in Botswana where I spent my time researching off-grid solar systems and learning about energy challenges in Southern Africa, I have returned home and am back to teaching and doing research at Franklin Pierce University. My time in Botswana was interesting, complicated, frustrating, and ultimately very rewarding. I had the opportunity to meet some very interesting people, I visited solar installations in some very unique and remote places, and was involved in the installation of a 20 kW photovoltaic system in a village just outside of Gaborone, the capital of the country. During my time in Botswana, I developed a far more nuanced understanding of the challenges associated with energy supply and demand in the developing world and learned to appreciate the reliable and inexpensive electricity and water supplies we have here in the US.  

Even though I plan to continue my interest in Southern African energy matters, I am now focusing again on NH energy issues. I thought it would be fitting to start where I left off a year ago and take a look at electricity prices and what the future might hold, especially after the mild weather experienced in New England last winter.

When looking at electricity prices, I always start by looking at wholesale prices. We have a very dynamic market for electricity in New England because we have a formal and well-run market organized by the independent system operator in New England, ISO-NE. (See my blog Extraordinary Machine to learn more.) We have 350 generators of electricity bidding to sell their electricity into the market. This includes nuclear power plants, coal, natural gas- and biomass-fired operations, as well as wind, solar, and hydro. This all makes for an interesting and dynamic market.

The figure below shows historical wholesale prices for electricity going back to 2010. It is interesting to note that, after three winters of spiking electricity prices, prices were very calm this past winter. This resulted from several factors.

Source: EIA

 First and most important, it was a mild winter – some have called it the winter that wasn’t (while I was away in Africa, my snow blower only received one workout). A good indication of how mild the winter was comes from examining the heating degree days (HDDs) (see A Hundred and Ten in the Shade for an explanation of heating degree days). The chart below shows HDDs for the past 12 years. We normally experience about 7000 HDD over a year (July to June) in NH and 6000 for the whole of NE; this past year, the values were ~15% lower, with values of 6000 and 5300, respectively. That was indeed a whole lot warmer, but I was taken by surprise that the HDD values for 2012/13 indicated an even warmer winter that year. Like many other folks, I tend have a short memory about past winters, except when they are extreme, but the data show that the winter of 2012/13 was the warmest in the past 12 years – at least as measured by HDDs values. An examination of the wholesale prices for that winter in the figure above shows some daily prices spikes, but nothing to the degree we experienced in the following three winters.
Source: ISO-NE

The other key driver for low electricity prices is low natural gas prices. Over the past winter, ~55% of the electricity produced in New England was from natural gas: as a result, natural gas prices had a big impact on what we paid for electricity. The two big uses of natural gas in NE are for home heating and electricity production. With the mild winter, there was enough natural gas to go around for both heating and generation. Daily prices did not spike, which was quite different from previous years. The figure below shows the extraordinarily tight correlation between natural gas prices and electricity prices in NE – when natural gas prices spike so do electricity prices.

Source: ISO-NE

Wholesale prices for electricity are presently of the order of 2 c/kWh. This is great, but what are the implications for us as retail electricity customers? Well, less positive than we would like. In NH this past winter, retail electricity prices were in the region of 18c/kWh, almost 9 times the wholesale rate, as shown in the figure below.

Source: EIA

It is important to appreciate that wholesale electricity prices are a small component of what we, as rate payers, shell out for electricity. Baked into the retail rates are a host of charges: there are charges to pay for the transmission and distribution networks; there are long-term contracts that the utilities have entered to purchase electricity (most likely at higher than 2 c/kWh); there are overheads, salaries for the utility company employees, etc.; and, in the case of Eversource, there is the cost of operating their generating facilities – which produce electricity for a whole lot more than 2 c/kWh. On top of this is the profit that the regulated utilities are allowed to earn on their investment in infrastructure. It is a long list of costs and additional charges that gets us all the way from 2 to 18 c/kWh and well worth a closer look in a future blog. It turns out that the utilities from which we buy our electricity end up buying a relatively small portion of their electricity from the wholesale market – a lot of their supply is from long-term contracts that they signed up for years ago. Of course, when wholesale prices are low we don’t like this but, when prices spike up to 45 c/kWh, as they did in the winter of 2013/14, we are quite grateful that our electricity suppliers have locked into lower cost long-term contracts.

Despite last year’s mild winter weather, if this upcoming winter were to be a very cold one, we should expect to see spikes in both natural gas prices and wholesale electricity rates that will impact what we pay for electricity. ISO-NE has taken some important steps in New England to mitigate these spikes through their winter reliability program and by increasing storage of liquefied natural gas, but we have not taken any steps to significantly increase natural gas supply. If we have a very cold winter again, we will see price spikes and then we will go through another round of handwringing and planning for increasing natural gas supply. The truth of the matter is that we do not have a long-term view about our energy supply here in New England. Plans to increase natural gas supply have been scuttled due to opposition or our desire to have the pipeline companies take all the risk. These are both good reasons for not increasing supply, but we must bear in mind that most existing energy infrastructure in the US has been built with some government intervention via regulated monopolies. Ultimately, every one of those infrastructure investments impacted somebody somewhere. If we do not want to invest in energy efficiency, we as energy consumers will end up paying in one of two ways: we will pay for infrastructure investments through costs and direct impacts on our property, our environment, and way of life, or we will suffer the consequences of not investing in infrastructure and creating unreliable supply conditions. Ultimately, it is our choice.

I like to take a look at what the futures markets are predicting for NE electricity prices and, even though futures markets are about looking forward, I also like to look back at their prices from the previous year and see how things have changed, especially with the warm winter we had. The figure below is a comparison of the future prices from last year with those at present. It is clear that there has been some change in the market’s view of upcoming electricity prices. As usual, we are seeing a market forecast of winter price spikes, but, compared with last year, the spikes are smaller and the base-line prices are also lower. This chart also gives one a sense of the challenges the utility companies face as they look to lock in sufficient electricity to supply us over the coming years. Do they secure long-term higher-priced electricity contracts, do they subject us to the whims of the short-term markets and maybe prices won’t spike again like last winter, or do they mitigate potential price spikes by buying insurance through futures contracts. These are important and challenging decisions that the utilities make under regulatory supervision because ultimately it is NH ratepayers that end up paying for whatever choice they make. What would you do?

Source: CME

As we consider the consequences of choices, I am going to wrap up this data-heavy post with an updated chart for default electricity rates for the four NH regulated electricity utilities. (Remember that default rates only reflect the retail costs of electricity and do not include the distribution costs.) These rates, shown below, are a direct reflection of the choices the utilities have made, under regulatory mandates, regarding the sourcing of electricity. Presently, PSNH default rates are substantially higher than those of Liberty, Unitil, and the NH Electric Cooperative. The rates for PSNH presently reflect the high costs associated with operating their own generation facilities, including the coal-fired Merrimack power plant. Even though there have been times that the rates for the other utilities have been higher than those for PSNH (due to wholesale market price spikes), their default rates have generally been lower. Now that the divestiture of the PSNH generating assets has finally started, it will be interesting to follow how PSNH’s rates in the future will compare with those of the other NH utilities.

Source: NH PUC

That wraps it up for this post. It is good to be back teaching in NH and learning about statewide energy matters. Feel free to email me to suggest topics for future blogs and, in the meantime, remember to turn off the lights when you leave the room.

Mike Mooiman
Franklin Pierce University
mooimanm@franklinpierce.edu



*Back Home A great upbeat singalong tune by Andy Grammar

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Gonna Take You Higher* – Electricity Price Increases in New Hampshire

If you are a NH resident buying your electricity from Unitil, NH Electric Cooperative, or Liberty Utilities, you are most likely reeling from the recent increases in winter electricity rates. This post begins a series that takes a look at what makes up NH retail electricity prices and the reasons behind the large increases that we are seeing for certain utilities.

Historically, electricity prices have been on the rise. The chart below shows the 24-year historical average NH residential electricity prices.  In 1990, prices were about 10 cents per kilowatt hour (c/kWh) and then climbed to about 14 c/KWh in 1998. Prices then experienced a slow decrease until about 2002, after which they continued their increase to this past winter when we saw average prices of ~17 c/kWh. The trend from 1990 to 2103 represents a compounded average increase of 2.5% per year, which is the same as US inflation over the same period.


Source: EIA

The next chart looks at residential electricity prices for a shorter time period, and compares the NH prices (in green) to those of the NE states (brown) and to the average US monthly figure (blue) since 2000.


Source: EIA

NH has generally followed the NE average, but from 2006 to 2010 was quite a bit lower. However, over this period, our electricity rates have been about 40% higher than the national average.

State-by-state comparison is always useful and interesting. The figure below shows recent state rankings based on July 2014 retail electricity prices. The NE states are all in the top 11, with Vermont and Connecticut higher having higher prices than NH. Our electricity prices are the 7th highest in the US at 17.23 c/KWh − we can take some solace that the price in Hawaii is more than double the NH average. On the other hand, Washington state, which benefits from cheap hydroelectricity, has the lowest prices – almost half of NH’s at 8.96 c/KWh.


Source: EIA

All of the electricity prices I have presented so far are average prices and include all the charges you see on your electrical utility bill. Looking at an electricity bill is not unlike deciphering your cell bill. There are a lot of bits and pieces and it takes effort to understand them. There are three basic components. The first is the cost of power, which is usually a single line item for the cost of electricity per KWh. The second is the cost of getting the electricity to your home, i.e., the cost of distribution and servicing your account, which usually involves several line items, such a fixed account charge, a distribution charge, and perhaps even a transmission fee. Finally, there are all the odds and ends, such as taxes, charges for government-mandated programs, etc.

The reason for all these separate charges is, as I have noted previously in What’s It All About, Alfie?, is that there are three key parts to the electricity business: the generation of electricity, typically at a large power plant located in a central location; the transmission of electricity over long distances from the generation point to towns and cities; and the distribution of electricity through the community via the sub-stations, wires, and transformers to individual homes and businesses. Not all electrical utilities focus on all aspects of the business. Some, for example, such as my local electrical company, just distribute electricity. Others, such as the merchant wood-fired power plants or wind farms, just focus on generation, whereas utilities like PSNH are fully integrated organizations involved in all three aspects of the business. 




The biggest line item in your electrical utility bill is the cost of electricity. This is the focus for the rest of this post.

The electricity industry has been partially deregulated in NH and retail customers can purchase their electricity from different competitive suppliers. However, this electricity still has to run through the transmission lines and electrical wires of their local electrical utility and so customers are charged for the use of that distribution infrastructure.  Should a NH resident decide not to purchase electricity from a competitive supplier, the local electrical utility has the responsibility to source and supply the electricity to the customer. The utilities do so and apply their default electrical service rate. Although there has been competition on the residential supply side of electricity for a few years now, the majority of NH residential customers still rely on their local electrical utility company to source and supply their electricity. This is the reason that increases in default electrical service rates are so important.

There has been a good amount of reporting lately about the big increases in electrical service rates proposed by the utility companies and approved by the NH PUC.  The table below summarizes the present default electrical service rates as well as some information for previous years.  




It is important to remember that these increases all relate to electricity supply (and not to transmission or distribution charges) so let’s take a closer look at the supply side of the NH utilities. The rest of this post focuses on the three utilities, NH Electric Co-op, Unitil, and Liberty Utilities, with approved increases. PSNH's default rates - which are not yet approved by the Public Utilities Commission - will be the topic for my next post. 

Expanding the supply aspect of the simple generation-transmission-distribution diagram presented above, the picture quickly becomes complicated because, as part of deregulation and the drive for competitive supply, we have introduced various intermediaries and market participants.

The electricity supply to residences by three of the four NH utilities (NH Electric Co-op, Unitil, and Liberty Utilities) is shown in the figure below. Competitive suppliers, shown in yellow, purchase electricity directly from generators (red) or through wholesale electrical markets (green). The second source of supply is from the utility itself, shown in blue, which needs to procure electricity for its default electrical service customers. The utility can purchase this electricity directly from generators but the bulk of the purchases are through wholesale electrical markets. There are two types of wholesale electrical markets – the forward sales and the spot markets. Generators sell electricity into both of these markets.  




In order to supply electricity to their default customers, the utilities have to forecast how much electricity will be required for a six-month period and then lock in the price of the forecasted amount of electricity in advance. This is carried out in the forward sales segment of the wholesale electrical markets. Although there is a cost associated with forward purchase commitments, they offer the advantage of locking in the rate of electricity purchases for the period. Should more electricity than forecasted be required, the utility has to purchase this extra electricity on the spot market.

Three NH utilities (NH Electric Co-op, Unitil, and Liberty Utilities) have just gone through the round of forecasting for this winter electricity supply. The utilities have estimated the number of default service customers and their total electricity consumption, and have gone out to markets and solicited bids for supplying this forecasted electricity through the winter months. The bids for Unitil and Liberty were reviewed, documented, and submitted as part of their default electrical service rate application to the NH Public Utilities Commission (PUC). The costs associated with these forward purchases of electricity are then included, without any mark-up by the utility, in the calculation of a single rate for winter months. The NHEC Co-op (NHEC) is unregulated and is not required to submit its rate adjustment calculation to the PUC.

The problem for default electricity customers is that the future prices for electricity for the next six months are high, as shown in the chart below. As the utilities lock in their supply and prices for the winter months, they are buying right into the winter price spikes.




The difficulty with this approach is that the utilities are trying to forecast in September what their electricity sales in the winter will be. This is an enormous challenge because they have to forecast how cold the winter will be, how many customers they might have and their consumptions. They must then commit to purchasing that electricity in advance. However, if the winter is mild, the spot price could be lower. Of course, the opposite could happen: it could be a brutal winter, natural gas consumption could be sky high, and electricity prices could skyrocket like last winter.  This is the challenge that the utilities and their regulators face. Is it better to lock in the price now – called “hedging” – or subject your customers to the gyrations of the spot markets where prices could be higher or lower than the forward market, or should some balance be struck between committing to a 100% hedge or a partial hedge? This is exactly the same decision we face at home. Do we commit to a fixed price for oil or natural gas over the winter months, or do we take our chances and hope it will be a warm winter and that oil and natural gas will be cheaper than that fixed-price contract. What would you do?

The regulators currently require Unitil and Liberty to hedge 100% of their six-month forecasted amounts and commit to the high winter prices. This has lead to the higher winter default service rates posted by these utilities.

This brings us to the question of why future prices for electricity are so high in winter.  In two words: natural gas. As we have closed down nuclear and coal-fired power plants in NE, we are now generating 46% of our electricity using natural gas. Depending on your viewpoint, that could be a good thing: it is a domestic fuel, cheap, and less polluting than coal. It does, however, make us very dependent on the natural gas market and fluctuations in natural gas prices. Natural gas is also used for heating and cooking and, in winter, we do not have the pipeline infrastructure to bring in enough natural gas for heating and electricity generation. During winter, the natural gas utilities and  electricity generators suck very hard on the end of the natural gas straw and when demand increases, markets do what they are wont to do and prices increase accordingly. When natural gas prices increase, so do the prices of electricity. NE has experienced price spikes for both natural gas and electricity during the past two winters, as shown in the chart below.

Source: ISO-NE

Sam Evans-Brown, in a recent NHPR report, does a great job of summarizing the natural gas situation in New England. The political cartoon by Bob Englehart of the Hartford Courant points to the irony of situation: there is an enormous amount of natural gas available in the US, but NE is at the end of the pipeline and that causes problems for us in the high-use winter months.


Bob Englehart

Hartford Courant

Dec 19, 2013


The future electricity prices are joined at the hip to the future natural gas prices. In the figure below, the leftmost chart shows the future prices of electricity and natural gas for the next three years, as provided by the forward markets. (The forward price of natural gas is calculated for the Boston Algonquin Citygate, which is a good proxy for NE natural gas pricing. See The Price for a discussion of natural gas citygate prices.) The winter spikes in forward electricity prices match the winter spikes in forward natural gas prices. Should you need convincing, the right-hand figure shows a direct and very strong correlation between future electricity  future natural gas prices. In fact, the correlation coefficient is 0.966, which indicates a super-strong correlation. (Correlation coefficients vary between 0 and 1. A coefficient of 1 indicates a perfect correlation, whereas a value of zero indicates no correlation.) Although correlation does not necessarily mean causation, in this case we can indeed be comfortable in concluding  that high future natural gas prices lead to high future prices for electricity.



Returning now to the table that shows the default service rates for the four utilities, we note that Unitil, Liberty, and NHEC reflect increases of 59%, 76%, and 71%, respectively, over last winter’s rates. Although NHEC also shows a large increase, their winter rates are substantially lower. Based on what I have been able to learn, these lower rates are due to diversification in the way NHEC purchases its electricity. NHEC does not hedge 100% of its forecasted needs just six months ahead. Instead, it commits to forward purchases many years out and to some just a few months out. It also purchases electricity directly from generators through long-term (20-year) power purchase agreements and will also purchase some of its power on the spot market where it is able to take advantage of lower spot prices at times. As an unregulated utility, NHEC clearly has more discretion than the regulated organizations and some might suggest that these direct comparisons are unfair. I disagree, because comparisons of these different approaches are important in trying to figure out what works best for NH ratepayers.

The Co-op model has a lot of attractive features. The customers are the shareholders and they are not incentivized by returns on capital or dividends. They want reliable supply and the lowest possible prices for electricity and the whole organization is focused to deliver this. With the other utilities, I don’t see the same incentives to keep down electricity prices. The regulated utilities, Unitil, Liberty, and PSNH, are required to pass on the costs of electricity to their customers without any mark-up so there is little motivation for them to search out alternatives to minimize energy prices.

NHEC has a long-term view of electricity prices and, to my mind, the “next six months” approach at Unitil, Liberty and PSNH, as required by regulation, is far too short-term. Wholesale reliance on short-term forward markets does not seem to be the best approach. There is certainly merit to the diversification and flexibility of supply model used by NHEC and I wonder whether consideration should not be given to incentivizing the regulated utilities to develop a longer-term view of electricity supply. One way to do this may be to allow the utilities the flexibility to diversify their electricity supply and reduce the price of electricity below that of the short-term forward markets and to share significantly in any resultant savings.

While researching this post, it struck me that there is considerable variety in the types of electrical utility and a great deal of experimentation occurring in NH. NH arrived early to the deregulation ball and then pulled back when things went awry in California (see Should l I Stay or Should I Go?). As a result we have an integrated utility, PSNH, still in the generation, transmission, and distribution business; we have two deregulated utilities, Unitil and Liberty, that are out of the generation business and who buy all their electricity on the wholesale markets; we have a cooperative in NHEC which is not regulated by the NH PUC; and we have a few municipal electric companies. With all of these options in NH, we have a unique opportunity to figure out which model is the best, and which consistently and reliably delivers low cost electricity to NH ratepayers.

The past two winters have seen a refrain of “Gonna Take You Higher”* and I anticipate that the NH annual average electricity price will rise again this year. When deregulation was introduced, we expected the markets to automatically deliver lower electricity costs. This has not always happened. Sure, we have run into cold winters, natural gas pipeline capacity issues, and the shutdown of nuclear and coal plants, but deregulation appears to have fallen short on some of its promises. This requires some reflection and is certainly worthy of a future blog post.

Electricity markets are different from other energy markets, many of which have an inventory buffers in the form of storage or stockpiles to overcome temporary interruptions and market dislocations. Electricity, on the other hand, needs to be simultaneously generated and consumed: it cannot be stored, and the underlying market components and structures are hellishly complicated. There are a limited number of market players, liquidity can be problematic at times, and − regardless of the cost − it needs to be “on” all of time. Moreover, in NE, the market for electricity now rests on top of the local market for natural gas – another commodity for which local storage is very limited and where delivery constraints come into play. With so much of our electricity dependent on natural gas, we could even reach situations where there is insufficient natural gas to generate the electricity we need. From this viewpoint, it appears that heavy dependence on natural gas has compromised the reliability of our electricity supply. This is all frightfully messy.   

I am a proponent of the letting the invisible hand of the market do its work, but it does need to do so under the very visible and intelligent hand of regulation. My 1/8 of a KWh worth is that progress has been made but there is still work to do to get things right for NH electricity rate payers.

Until next time, remember to turn off the lights when you leave the room.

Mike Mooiman
Franklin Pierce University
mooimanm@franklinpierce.edu







(*Gonna Take You Higher – A line from the chorus of Sly and the Family Stone’s tune,  Want to Take You Higher, and a great example of the funky soul music from the 1960s. This was one of the tunes in the Family Stone’s set at Woodstock when they played it at 3 am and had the crowd chanting “Higher”. Here is a video of a 1969 show that gives you a sense of the power and drive of Sly and the Family Stone. Enjoy I Want to Take You Higher.)